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The June 2024 US jobs report shows signs of cooling with lower job growth and rising unemployment. Key data and impact on Federal Reserve policy, inflation, wage trends.

A closer look at key numbers within the latest US jobs report for June 2024. Job growth continues but slows alongside a surprise uptick in the unemployment rate. How could this data impact the Federal Reserve?

US Job Growth Slows While Unemployment Rises in June 2024

The latest US jobs report for June 2024 shows signs of cooling within the nation's labor market, though job growth remains positive. This article analyzes the report's key data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy, inflation, wage growth, and other economic factors.

Job Additions and Unemployment Rate

• The US economy added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, exceeding expectations.
• However, this reflects a slowdown from May’s revised 218,000 job additions.
• Revisions for April and May show 111,000 fewer jobs added than initially reported.
• The unemployment rate rose to an unexpected 4.1% - the highest level since November 2021.

This data shows job growth continuing, but at a slower pace alongside an uptick in unemployment. Experts cite this as further evidence of cooling within the nation's labor market in 2024.

How Might This Impact Federal Reserve Policy?

• Softer economic data, plus rising unemployment and falling inflation, leads some experts to predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months.
• Investors are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September 2024.
• Slowing job growth paired with rising unemployment complicates the Fed’s approach.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell faces balancing these trends while avoiding potential “disinflationary” scenarios.

Checking in on Wage Growth

• Wage growth landed at 3.9% year-over-year in June - down from May’s 4.4% figure.
• On a monthly basis, wages grew 0.3% - below May’s 0.4% gain.
• Slowing wage growth aligns with expectations for milder inflationary pressures.

Slower wage growth gives the Fed more latitude to support the job market via rate cuts if needed.

Job Additions Breakdown

• Government employment saw the largest gains in June at 70,000 added jobs.
• Healthcare added 49,000 jobs - fewer than its average monthly rate.
• The labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.6% after dipping to 62.5% in May.

Recent Employment Trends

• Many economists cite cooling within the labor market amid indicators like:
  • Nine straight weeks of rising continuing unemployment claims
  • Softer readings across both private and public job reports
• However, employers continue posting historically high levels of job openings.

The Road Ahead

June’s jobs report aligns with mounting evidence of an economic cooldown across areas like housing, manufacturing, and corporate earnings. Key factors shaping employment in the back half of 2024 include:

• The Fed's interest rate policy balancing inflation and labor market risks
• Businesses' demand for workers amid slower growth
• Supply/demand dynamics across industries like healthcare and technology
• Structural issues like skills gaps and labor shortages

The June data provides the Fed leeway to support employment with rate cuts if deemed necessary. Follow-up jobs reports in coming months will provide greater clarity on whether cooling job growth reflects a temporary blip or overarching slowdown.

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